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  • Debating China's Rise and U.S. Decline
  • Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson (bio) and Michael Beckley (bio)

To the Editors (Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson writes):

Michael Beckley's article deserves attention for challenging the view that the United States is declining because China is rising.1 Its ambiguous definition of decline, however, sends the wrong impression about the distribution of economic and military power between the United States and China. Without being explicit, Beckley implies that the United States is not declining because the absolute difference of economic, military, and technological capabilities between the United States and China is growing. In contrast, both theory and history suggest that it is more important that the relative distribution of economic and military capabilities between the United States and China is falling: as I propose below, decline is best defined as a decrease in the ratio of economic and military capabilities between two great powers. As a result, even if the United States maintains a large advantage in absolute capabilities, the fact that U.S. capabilities are decreasing relative to China's means that (1) China will find it easier to advance its interests where U.S. and Chinese goals diverge, while (2) the United States' ability to pursue its own interests in world affairs will be increasingly constrained by Chinese power.

The remainder of this letter proceeds in four sections. First, I challenge Beckley's definition of decline and emphasize the need to analyze the relative distribution of capabilities when assessing the decline phenomenon. Using historical examples, I next demonstrate that the relative distribution of power better captures the ability of states to compete with one another. Subsequently, I show that the United States is declining relative to China across several measures of economic and military power. Finally, I propose that the United States' relative decline suggests a different response to China's rise, namely, U.S. retrenchment. [End Page 172]

Defining Decline and Measuring Power

In his article, Beckley does not define what he means by "decline." He implies, however, that decline occurs when the absolute difference in capabilities between two states falls (pp. 44-55). For example, Beckley states that it is "significant that the average Chinese citizen is more than $17,000 poorer relative to the average American than he was in 1991" (p. 59). Particularly important for Beckley is the difference in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and measures of technological sophistication: larger absolute differences between the United States and China in these indicators mean an economically and militarily stronger United States (pp. 58-59, 63-65). This definition, however, sets an artificially high bar by which to assess decline, one that mischaracterizes the debate over American decline and makes limited theoretical sense. Instead, decline is better defined in terms of the relative distribution of economic and military capabilities between two great powers: decline occurs when one state's economic and military capabilities increase at a faster rate than the other's, such that the ratio of capabilities between the two falls. As such, it is more important for assessing the current distribution of power that the ratio of American per capita GDP to Chinese per capita GDP fell from 67:1 in 1991 to 9:1 in 2011, than it is that the difference in per capita GDP rose from $37,300 in 1991 to $41,600 in 2011 (in constant 2010 dollars).2

Few participants in the decline debate argue that China is likely to overtake the United States across all measures of economic and military power.3 More representative of mainstream views in the debate is the National Intelligence Council's Global 2025 report, which argues, "Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States' relative strength [. . .] will decline and US leverage will become more constrained."4 In other words, the policy discussion centers on whether China's growth is making it relatively harder for the United States to pursue its interests without other states opposing its actions—not whether the United States is losing out to China in absolute terms.

Furthermore, for purposes of international relations theory, scholars usually distinguish between decline as an absolute loss...

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