The Politics and Strategy of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East: Opacity, Theory, and Reality, 1960-1991: An Israeli Perspective (review)

Book Reviews 129 The Politics and Strategy of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East: Opacity, Theory, and Reality, 1960-1991: An Israeli Perspective, by Shlomo Aronson with Oded Brosh. Albany: State University of New York Press, 1992. 398 pp. $19.95. In all regions of world politics, but especially in the Middle East, we are present at the gradual unveiling of a secret, but the nucleus of meaning-the essential truth of what is taking place-is what is not said. Recognizing this, the distinguished Israeli scholar Shlomo Aronson, with the assistance of Oded Brosh, directs our attention to "opaque" nuclear cases, what students of proliferation sometimes call "undeclared bombs." Offered as part of the SUNY Series in Israeli StUdies, The Politics and Strategy of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East represents a first-class work of considerable importance-one that inquires broadly and carefully into matters of terrible urgency. In examining his subject, Aronson is self-consciously historicaV political, not technical. At a time when so much current writing in the field focuses narrowly on technological breakthroughs and weapon systems, this author proceeds historically, ensuring that analyses and extrapolations reflect the "utterly necessary framework" of history. Not surprisingly, therefore, the book stands in marked contrast to other, far more mechanistic and anecdotal treatments and permits the reader to examine systematically several key hypotheses. For example, Chapters 5 ("The 1967 War"), 6 ("The Road to the Yom Kippur War") and 7 ("The Walls of Jericho") provide a wealth of historical detail from which a productive understanding of current and future policies/developments might be generated. The author's Epilogue ("The End of OpaCity") is arguably the best part of his excellent book. After an informed characterization of two kinds of nuclear opacity-"self-imposed opacity and foreign-imposed opacity"Aronson suggests that"... the time may have come, from Washington's viewpoint, to concentrate on a regional security system that would guarantee stability in the region by direct involvement of the superpowers, the Europeans and the U.N." Of course, the Soviet superpower no longer exists, but an appropriate security regime-as a collaborative mode of ensuring regional safety and stability in the Middle-seems to offer a reasonable alternative to the customary dynamics ofRealpolitik. For Israel, in particular, the promise of a security regime approach to peace would, inter alia, be a diminished commitment to costly armament and exhausting vigilance. At ,the very end of the book, Aronson-to his great credit-raises the issue and danger of Iran's nuclear program. Significantly, this program 130 SHOFAR Spring 1993 Vol. 11, No.3 represents a far more catastrophic threat to Israel than protracted intercommunal conflict with the Palestinians. Indeed, even if Israel were to yield West Bank and Gaza to create a new state of Palestine, with East Jerusalem as its capital (much more than the Rabin Government has in mind with "autonomy"), Teheran would persist in its ongoing nuclearization . . Iran, according to some sources, already has in place a number of nuclear weapons and is acquiring new delivery systems ranging from ballistic missiles to nuclear-capable artillery. A report issued on Aprii 30 1992 by the Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare, House Republican Research Committee, U.S. House of Representatives ("Iran's Nuclear Weapons-Update II") states the following: "Currently, Iran is known to have the following nuclear weapons: Two warheads for a SCUDtype ballistic missile, each 40Kt strong. These warheads can be fitted on any SSM that has been derived from the basic SCUD. These warheads are in operational status. One aerial bomb of the type carried by a MiG 27. The performance range of standard Soviet nuclear bombs for MiG-27s is between 1000-2000kg, with a tonnage of between 50 and 500 Kts. The bomb is in operational status. One nuclear artillery shell that is 0.1 Kt strong. The weapon's current operational status is not known." The value of Aronson's book lies not only in what it examines and discloses, but also in the role it can play in raising pertinent alarms and spawning additional studies. Israel continues to face grave threats to its existence! During the next one to three...