Critique of Chapman's "Energy Problems in the Pacific Northwest"

CRITIQUE OF CHAPMAN'S "ENERGY PROBLEMS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST" Norman A. Gilchrist Seattle Area Manager Bonneville Power Administration Dr. Chapman has discussed with you the various energy problems that face Canada, especially British Columbia, and has reviewed some of the related matters in the United States. However, I would like to dwell primarily on the latter phase of it—the problems of the Pacific Northwest in the United States. I gather from the remarks tonight thus far that most of the audience is familiar with the past development of the Columbia River. But, just to be sure, I would like to point out that the federal government first became involved in the development of the Columbia River in the 1930's when Bonneville and Grand Coulee dams were started as WPA projects. The agency I am with, Bonneville Power Administration, was created in 1937 to serve as the marketing agency for the power produced at these federal multi-purpose projects. We started with Bonneville dam and today we have as the sources of generation 15 federal multi-purpose projects in the Columbia River Basin. Five more are under construction, and an additional three authorized for construction. The agency I represent markets power in the Pacific Northwest, basically defined as Washington, Oregon, northern Idaho, and Western Montana. The load data figures given to you by Dr. Chapman actually cover a little bit more geography than the agency I represent. I believe southern Idaho is included in his figures. In the geographic area in which we operate, we are wholesalers to 115 different entities—89 are utilities. One of these, I might mention is the British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority serving western British Columbia. We have been intertied at Blaine since World War II. The importance of this federal power program in the Pacific Northwest can be illustrated by a few statistics. During this past February the electric utility peak demand was 8/2 million kilowatts. Of this amount just under five million kilowatts was being generated at federal power projects. Last calendar year 55K per cent of the electric energy utilized in the Northwest was produced at federal plants and marketed by the agency I represent. The low cost power base we now enjoy in the Pacific Northwest is a very significant factor in the economic structure of this region. As a consequence, we at Bonneville believe that a basic objective of our program is to endeavor to protect and to perpetuate this low-cost power base. We rely mainly on a hydroelectric system. A shortage of economical development of other types of plants in the past has made this a 96 per cent hydro system in the Pacific Northwest. As a consequence, the generation of electricity depends on the amount of water we have in the rivers. Utility people use two basic terms to define this situation. 64 Firm power is that amount of power that we can guarantee to deliver throughout the year—every year. This is determined as that amount of power our dams would produce if the worst water year of record were to recur. The second term is called secondary energy. This is the added amount of power we can produce any time the river flow is above the low water historical record. To create more firm power in a given area, we either must build reservoirs to hold back high water and release it when we need it, or else we build more run-of-the-river plants to utilize the natural flow of the river. In the case of the main stem of the Columbia River in the United States, only two damsites are left to be developed.· And both must be run-of-theriver plants because of their locale. As a consequence, to increase the productivity of our present system, reservoirs become a very important need. On the basis of our present load forecasts, the Pacific Northwest will be hard pressed to meet the firm power needs ahead. By conservative estimates the region's firm power load will double in the next decade. This means that we must have added to the Pacific Northwest in the next ten years as much...