The Convergence of European Mortality in Both Sexes in the Near Future: A Spatio-Temporal Approach

Mortality has decreased in all the countries of the European Union during the last century, presenting similar patterns within the change of mortality. Despite these similar trends, there are still considerable differences in the levels of mortality of these countries and between men and women. The aim of this article is to adjust and predict mortality and life expectancy at birth in both sexes within 16 countries of the European Union, modifying the Lee-Carter model by means of the inclusion of a spatial component. Mortality is decreasing within these countries, causing the historical difference between both sexes in the years of the projection to disappear. But differences among the countries of the study in mortality levels remain.