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SAIS Review 23.2 (2003) 239-243



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China's New Rulers: The Secret Files, by Andrew J. Nathan and Bruce Gilley. (New York: The New York Review of Books, 2002). 237 pp. $22.

China long has conjured up a sense of mystery and intrigue among Western observers. Just thirty-five years ago during the Cultural Revolution, Western intelligence analysts were starved for knowledge about the insular country and reportedly relied on Hong Kong's market stalls as a vital information source. They eagerly scoured through trash piles to retrieve the newspapers wrapped around vegetables grown nearby in China's Guangdong Province, hoping to find precious bits of information about that country's basic living conditions, government policies, and political leadership. Of course, China has been fundamentally transformed since that time. Communism as an economic system now exists in name only, replaced by a rapidly expanding market-based system. Information about China and its people is now plentiful, perhaps to the extent of analytical paralysis.

One thing that has not changed, however, is the relative lack of information about China's political system and its leaders. At the Sixteenth Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress in November 2002, an entire bloc of younger cadres known as the "fourth generation" was elevated to the party's highest leadership positions. At the head of this group is Hu Jintao, who now holds two of the three key leadership positions—President and CCP General Secretary—that constitute supreme power in China. Hu is expected eventually to assume the third main position as Chairman of the Central Military Commission from Jiang Zemin. Remarkably little is known about Hu and his fourth generation peers, such as Wen Jiabao, Zeng Qinghong, and Wu Bangguo, who have assumed greater prominence in this era of increased collective leadership. Thus, China's New Rulers: The Secret Files, by Andrew J. Nathan and Bruce Gilley, is a significant contribution to understanding who these new leaders are and how they think. The book thoughtfully removes the aura of mystery that surrounds the fourth generation, [End Page 239] which many observers believe will initiate some degree of political reform over time.

Nathan and Gilley's book is similar, in many respects, to the newspapers found in Hong Kong markets thirty-five years ago. Both fill a need for basic yet critical information, and both give their readers a perspective that is at once voyeuristic and genuine. China's New Rulers draws heavily upon the Chinese-language book Disidai ("The Fourth Generation"), whose author, writing under the pseudonym Zong Hairen, obtained secret documents compiled by the CCP's Organization Department. 1 These documents are the personnel files used by the CCP itself to evaluate candidates for top party posts and are the product of meticulous research and interviews by party investigators. This is not the first time Nathan has relied on so-called secret files to expose the arcane workings of Chinese politics. He is known most famously for The Tiananmen Papers, 2 which documents, through internal party memos and notes, the tragic sequence of events that led to the CCP's decision to use force against its own people in June 1989. Nathan is banned from visiting China to this day, and the government has denied the authenticity of both Disidai and China's New Rulers, albeit with little conviction. Nathan's fellow collaborator is former Far Eastern Economic Review reporter Bruce Gilley, who has authored a well-received biography of Jiang Zemin. 3

The book's most valuable contribution is its insight into the mysterious Hu—probably the least known of the world's important leaders. Throughout his career, Hu has built an impressive resume that reveals surprisingly little about him. It is tempting, but ultimately imprudent, to infer in Hu personal qualities that could lead to prospective actions (e.g., political reforms) based on the positions he has held. For example, many believe Hu to be sympathetic to the concerns of China's rural population—such as the growing disparity with the rich urban coast—because of his service as party secretary in...

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