The Superpowers and the Northern Tier

The I T h e crises of economic development, national integration, political legitimacy and international ideological conflict have resulted in major political convulsionsin the Northern Tier countries1of Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey. During the past two years Afghanistan’s President Daud, Iran’s Premier Hoveida, and Pakistan’s Premier Bhutto have been killed. An Islamic Republic has been established in Iran, a Marxist-Leninistgovernment has come to power in Afghanistan,an Islamic-oriented military regime has been ruling Pakistan. Turkey, on the verge of economic collapse, has been the scene of increasing political violence, with thirteen of its provinces under martial law since December 1978. The crises in the Northern Tier countries have had serious implications beyond their borders as well. The Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), conceived as a cordon sunifuire between the Soviet Union and the Persian Gulf; is dead. Two western allies in the region, Pakistan and Iran, have become nonaligned. Afghanistan, previously the only nonaligned Northern Tier country, has become a de facto Soviet ally. American ground stations in Iran, which monitored Soviet activities especially in relation to SALT, have been closed, complicating SALT verification. There are serious problems in Turkey’s relations with its NATO allies. Iran’s armed forces, one of the largest and best-equipped in the world, have disintegrated. With the disintegration of these forces and overthrow of the Shah, Iran’s regional r o l e checkingthe expansionof “radical and pro-Soviet” forces in the region-has also collapsed, and American-Pakistani relations have been deteriorating because of conflict over Pakistan’s nuclear program. Reportedly the Pakistanis are clandestinely constructing a uranium enrichment facility giving them the capacity for producing fissionablematerial usable in nuclear weapons . Zalmay Khalilzad is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Columbia University, and an Associate of the university‘s Znstitute for Warand Peace Studies. He has also participated in smeral research projects, including Interests and Power in the Persian Gulf at Pan-Heuristics, Los Angeles. *I am grateful to Cheryl Benard, Richard Rainey and Arthur Steiner for their comments on this article. 1. In recent times the concept of the Northern Tier acquired currency in the 1950s. Former Secretary of State John Foster Dulles referred to ”the northern tier of nations.” This was largely a geo-strategic concept referring to the countries on the southern periphery of the Soviet Union. 6 Superpowers in the Northern Tier I 7 The crises in Northern Tier countries are not over. In varying degrees and at several levels, each country in the region is politically fragmented. Each contains many minorities, some of whom are seeking autonomy, and many political groups with conflictingideological beliefs. All of them have serious economic problems. These conflicts are further aggravated by the absence of a consensus on the manner of political competition. No matter which group comes to power, it is likely to be challenged, often violently, by others. Thus the region is likely to remain unstable in the foreseeable future. Although the causes of the instabilities in the Northern Tier are largely internal, they are influenced by, and provide different risks and opportunitiesfor, external powers such as the United States and the Soviet Union. As in other countries, Russian foreign policy (both in the imperial and subsequent Soviet period) has emerged from a mixing chamber in which the conflicting elements of Soviet values, its image of the political environment, and its capabilities have forged a compromise. In each of these interrelated categories, there have been similarities and significant differences between Russia and other countries. Within Russia itself, there have been remarkable continuities, conflicts and changes in regard to each category. The goals of Soviet foreign policy (either short-run or long-term) toward Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey have included the weakening of the western alliance system in the region; detaching Iran, Turkey and Pakistan from such alliances; bringing nonaligned Afghanistan into the Soviet camp; the extensionof Sovietpower and influence over the NorthernTier countries; the spread of Mamist-Leninist ideology and strengthening of Marxist-Leninist parties; access to the natural resources and airspace of the countries of the area; and trade. The Soviets have emphasized different goals at different times depending on factors such as...