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BOOK REVIEWS 187 The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions During the Cold War. By William Curtis Wohlforth. Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 1993. 317 pages. Rei'ietced by KM Buckman. Mr. Buckman is an MA candidate at SAIS. Two themes dominated Soviet perceptions during die Cold War: the quest for nuclear parity with die United States; and die pursuit ofthe USSR's righriul place in die society of nations and its greater influence in world politics therein. Though rhe Soviets attained the first goal by the 1970s, die second goal forever eluded diem. William Curtis Wohlforth's contribution to understanding die Soviets lies in an improved understanding ofSoviet "logic" during the Cold War. He explains why the Soviets did not abandon the Leninist-imperialist prediction of inevitable war among the competing capitalist countries. The post-World War II evolution of this perception is the focus ofWohlforth's book. Wohlforth begins in the early 1950s, when Hungarian economist Eugene S. Varga began to articulate to Soviet economists the potential fot stable relations among Western capitalist countries. Though largely ignored, this "new-diinking" would eventually take hold as the centrist line offoreign policy in the mid-1980s. Resistance to diis "new diinking" emanated not only from the top heavy Soviet institutions, but also from rhe not always incorrect "old-thinking" Leninist-imperialist perception ofworld events. The crisis years of rhe early 1960s seemed to reconfirm rhe old view that nuclear paritywas essential to gain greater global influence. Later, the U.S. defeat in Vietnam re-enforced support for the Leninist perception that imperialism would collapse, thus renewing credibility to "old-thinking". It is precisely Wohlforth's point that world perceptions, which are fundamentally subjective, form foreign policy according to the perceptions. In orher words, die Soviet perceptions were formed by the Leninist model, and recognized evidence which supported it. Furthermore, in the early stages ofthe Cold War, it was the Soviet perspective that military power lay at the heart of U.S. hegemonic power. As the U.S. position would inevitably decay, die growing Soviet military power would accord the USSR greater global influence. Therefore, military power became the key to the Soviet Union's future. Though nuclear parity was achieved in the 1970s, it came with the recognition that there was more to U.S. hegemony than military might. By the 1980s die Soviet perspective began slowly to deny the Leninist inevitability of war and accept Vargas proposition rhat the West could achieve stability. Wohlforth traces the evolution ofthis perspective from 1945 to 1989, focusing mosdy on the evolution of the Soviet general line in foreign policy, but also paying considerable attention to American perceptions of Soviet foreign policy. Though careful to make no predictions concerning rhe future balance ofpower, Wohlforth points to two great ironies. One, both new-thinking and old-thinking policies relied heavily on military capabilities, the problem "was that, unlike the earlier 188 SAIS Review SUMMER-FALL 1994 policy, it [new-thinking] was finite: once the arms-control deal was signed," the "Soviet role was reduced" (278). The second great irony, "when at last Moscow rid itselfofits Leninist 'class' understanding of world politics and began to adjust to the bipolar international structure, that structure began to unravel" (291). Highly critical of Cold War analyses that ignore the changing perceptions of global politics, Wohlforth makes it clear that his contribution lay in the investigation of perception and decision-making as they take place. Looking at the Sun: The Rise of the New East Asian Economic and Political System. By James Fallows. New York, NY: Pantheon Books, 1994. 517 pp. $25.00/Hardcover Reviewed by Lance Gunnar Larson, BA University of Michigan In 1987 The International Herald Tribune sponsored a conference in Singapore to discuss the economic prospects of Pacific Rim countries in the next century. The recurring theme throughout the conference was the emergence of rhe Japanese-led East Asian region and rhe relative decline ofAmerica as the center ofthe international economy. Responding to this notion of an impending post-American era was The New York Times' William Safire, who attributed die perception to the amount of coverage die U.S. federal deficit and other economic problems...

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