Global Positioning Systems: A Military Revolution for the Third World?

GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEMS: A MILITARY REVOLUTION FOR THE THIRD WORLD? by Raffi Gregorian O? April 15, 1986, United States Air Force F-IlIs bombed Libya in retaliation for a series of terrorist attacks on American citizens overseas. Later that day, Libya launched two Soviet-made SCUD-B missiles at a U.S. Coast Guard base on the Italian island of Lampedusa. The missiles, which have a range of three hundred kilometers and an accuracy of about nine hundred meters, reportedly fell short of their intended target and exploded harmlessly at sea.1 On February 16, 1991, at the height ofthe Gulf War, an Iraqi SCUD exploded near the Saudi port ofJubail. A pier and a large truck park were only three hundred meters away from the point ofimpact. At the pier were eight ships, including several ammunition ships and two vessels containing virtually all the provisions for the U.S. Marine air force. On the pier itself lay five thousand tons of artillery ammunition.2 The missile caused no damage of consequence. 1.The use ofthe word "accuracy" as applied to missiles and other ordnance may be misleading to some readers. It refers specifically to the radius of a circle centered upon a target and within which 50 percent of warheads fall. This is known as "circle error probable," or CEP. 2.Testimony of Henry D. Sokolski, Deputy for Non-proliferation Policy, Office of Assistant Secretary ofDefense, "Hearing ofthe subcommittee on technology and national security of the joint economic committee," Federal News Service, March 13, 1992. Raffi Gregorian works as a policy analyst on arms control, low-intensity conflict and international security affairs for Science Applications International Corporation's (SAIC) Space Policy and National Security Programs office. He is also a Ph.D. student and Bradley Fellow in Strategic Studies at SAIS. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those ofthe author, and do not necessarily represent those ofSAIC. 133 134 SAIS REVIEW Ten days earlier in London, during an unusual snowfall, the Provisional Wing ofthe Irish Republican Army fired three mortar shells at No. 10 Downing Street from a van parked nearby. One shell exploded in a garden 45 feet behind the house, blowing in the windows of the room in which Prime MinisterMajorwas meetingwith members ofhis War Cabinet. No one in the house was injured. In the future, these types of missile attacks will be much more likely to hit their intended target. Using signals from the U.S. NAVSTAR Global Positioning System, or GPS, terrorist and Third World military organizations can now give their missiles, mortars and other ordnance accuracies offive meters or better. This precision-guidance capability can be obtained through the purchase of inexpensive and widely-available commercial equipment. A large, costly or highly-developed engineering, scientific or manufacturing infrastructure is thus no longer necessary for people to achieve technological equivalence to U.S. precision-guidance systems. Instead, such systems can be purchased for less than $2,000 a set, well within the means of even the poorest country or terrorist group. Were Third World or terrorist organizations to take advantage ofGPS, a quantum leap in the political and military effectiveness oftheir arsenals would ensue, possibly forcing a change in how the United States could conduct military operations in the future. But will vastly improved accuracy in Third World and terrorist missiles force a fundamental alteration ofthe conduct and character ofmilitary operations, thus creating what is known as a military technical revolution? What Is GPS? GPS is a satellite system developed by the U.S. Department ofDefense that allows users to obtain very precise information on their position, height, direction, and speed, instantly, or in militaryjargon, in "real-time." GPS functions 24 hours a day, in all weather conditions, and all over the globe. Initial systems of satellite-aided earth navigation were based upon principles discovered by studying frequency variations of radio signals received from Sputnik I. Scientists from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab learned they could determine the entire orbit ofthe satellite from what is called the Doppler frequency shift. When the process oforbit determination was reversed, they found that a navigator could determine his own position by measuring the reception...