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THE UNITED STATES AND ASIA. IN THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD1 Michael W. Chinworth and Dean Cheng here is no doubt that the world of 1990 is fundamentally different from what it was only a year ago and that many ofthe developments that have taken place in recent months have, in fact, an air offinality. Europe is awash in transformations that were unthinkable only a few years ago: The Soviet Union has been transformed from an "Evil Empire" to a nextdoor neighbor, German reunification has proceeded at a blinding pace, communist regimes have fallen to popular governments, and Soviet military forces are withdrawing from Eastern Europe. This sequence of historic events has led defense specialists and policymakers in the United States to call for major cuts in defense expenditures and the wholesale reduction of U.S. forces in Europe. The Cold War has been declared over, and, just as it did after the war to end all wars in 1918 and again when 1. The authors would like to thank Robert J. Downen and James J. Przytsup for their valued comments on earlier drafts of this paper. Michael W. Chinworth is former Director ofResearch for the MIT Japan Program, Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology, Cambridge, Mass. He recentlyjoined The Analytical Sciences Corp. as Director of Asian Technology Studies. Dean Cheng is a doctoral candidate at the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology's Defense and Arms Control Studies Program. His thesis will examine Asian perceptions of Japan as a potential threat. He has worked at the RAND Corp., the Center for Naval Analyses and the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 73 74 SAIS REVIEW the world was made safe for democracy in 1945, the United States is poised to dismantle its military establishment with a note of finality. Our declaration of victory in the Cold War, however, raises the dangerous possibility that events in one part of the globe—Europe—will be allowed to dictate our policies in another—Asia—without our fully considering the differences between the two regions. Unlike the situation in Europe, a complex set of competing interests and interstate tensions remain in Asia that will require a moderating presence for the foreseeable future. Indeed, it is unlikely that Asia will witness transformations comparable to those in Europe for decades to come. A precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Asia would only serve to exacerbate regional fears and instabilities that have not yet been surmounted. This would undo the most important contribution ofthe U.S. military presence in the region: the provision of political and economic stability, which has facilitated tremendous growth. The United States should continue to balance competing interests and avoid potential friction, thus providing the basis for continued growth. In addition, the security outlook for the Soviet position in Asia remains different from the Soviet position in Europe. The military transformations witnessed in Europe have not spread to the Asian Pacific region, where the Soviet military, especially the navy, remains a major factor. Although the Soviets have somewhat reduced their profile in the region, the chances for dramatic Soviet military reductions are significantly more likely if the United States were to remain in the region for the time being. Traditional Objectives in Asia Since the turn of this century, the United States has pursued three fundamental objectives in the Asian Pacific region. The U.S. political aim has been to promote stability and to encourage the development of democratic institutions and responsive elected governments. The most notable success of this policy has been Japan, which was transformed from a feudal, militaristic state to a democratic one (albeit largely by virtue of losing a devastating war). To a lesser extent, the United States also has attempted to liberalize regimes in South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines and, more recently, has tried to guide Singapore in the direction of greater democracy. The U.S. economic aim—dating back to the country's earliest interactions with the region—has been the establishment and preservation of open markets and free trade. The U.S. goal of retaining economic access to the region may be seen clearly in its policies toward China. The United States has long viewed the Chinese market as having enormous...

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