Japan After the Cold War

JAPAN AFTER THE COLD WAR. Mike M. Mochizuki Japáñese are no different than Americans and West Europeans in welcoming the end of the Cold War. The improvement of Soviet-American relations lessens the possibility of Japan becoming embroiled in a military conflict between the superpowers. Furthermore, the crisis of communism and the global push for military retrenchment affirm the basic correctness of Japan's postwar policies to minimize military expenditures while concentratingon market-driven economic growth. But despite the euphoria surrounding change in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, the Japanese are anxious about the future. Their greatest fear in the post-Cold War era is the emergence of a neo-isolationist America—one with weaker security links to East Asia and exclusionary policies towards Japanese imports and investments. The primary challenge facing Japan at the end of the Cold War will be to keep the United States diplomatically and militarily involved in Asia while simultaneously committed to a liberal, international economic order. As the international system evolves from bipolarity to multipolarity, some might argue that Japan will be forced to pursue a foreign policy more independent of the United States. This would, by necessity, mean developing major military capabilities (including a nuclear arsenal) commensurate with its economic resources. Although such a course Mike M. Mochizuki is an assistant professor at the School of International Relations of the University of Southern California. He is currently completing a book entitled Conservative Hegemony: Party Strategies and Social Coalitions in Japan. 121 122 SAISREVIEW cannot be ruled out, it is much more likely that Japan will try to strengthen its alliance with the United States and use economic rather than military power to protect and promote its national interests in this era of systemic change. Benefits ofthe Cold War System Japanese anxiety about the post-Cold War era is not hard to understand , since Japan has benefited more than any other country from the Cold War. While pursuing a militarized containment policy, the United States sought to expedite Japan's recovery from World War II by drawing it into international economic organizations and by shielding it with the American defense umbrella. Not only did U.S. military support obviate the need for Japan to undertake major rearmament, but its military procurements from Japan during the Korean and Vietnam Wars contributed immensely to Japan's economic reconstruction. Meanwhile, Japan initiated asymmetrical trade policies that the United States was slow to correct. The American market was opened to Japanese goods, while Japan implemented restrictions on imports and foreign investments. As Japan's economic capabilities grew, Washington approached Tokyo to liberalize its foreign economic policies, but was constrained by a broader interest in promoting good bilateral security relations. The benefits of siding with the Americans during the Cold War have clearly outweighed the costs. Unlike Germany or Korea, Japan did not suffer the humiliation of national division. As part of the postwar settlement, Washington did compel Tokyo to recognize the nationalist regime in Taipei (rather than the communist one in Beijing), but Japan side-stepped this problem by separating politics and economics, thereby developing economic ties with mainland China. Sino—American rapprochement in 1971 merely cleared the way for the full normalization of relations between Japan and China. Regarding the Soviet Union, Japan's security link with the United States may have hardened Moscow's position on the disputed Northern Territories, and thereby prevented the negotiation of a Soviet-Japanese peace treaty. But this did not prevent Japan from accessing raw materials in Siberia during the period of Soviet-American détente in the 1970s. Moreover, Soviet recalcitrance on the territorial question has helped the Japanese government consolidate and maintain public support for its proAmerican security orientation. The CoCom (Coordinating Committee on Export Control) restrictions may have constrained Japan's trade and investment practices in Eastern bloc countries, but this limitation has been negligible in terms of Tokyo's overall economic interests. JAPAN AFTER THE COLD WAR 123 Given the great benefits and minimal costs of its strategic alignment with the United States, it is not surprising that Japan is most concerned about the future direction of American foreign policy. As Soviet-American relations improve...