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MISSILE PROLIFERATION___ AND AMERICAN INTERESTS Thomas G. Mahnken and Timothy D. Hoyt long-range ballistic missiles have been an integral part of the developed world's strategic fabric since the launch of Sputnik in 1957.1 In recent years, however, it has become increasingly apparent that the technology to build such missile systems, once confined to the United States, France, and Britain in the West, and the Soviet Union and China in the East, is spreading throughout the developing world. The "War of the Cities" between Iran and Iraq and the test by India of the Agni intermediate -range ballistic missile (IRBM) are two of the more tangible signs of the diffusion of this technology. But they are only the tip of the iceberg , as a number of previous studies have made clear.2 1 . For the purpose of this paper, a long-range missile is defined as one capable of delivering a 500 kg payload a distance of 300 km or more. 2.See Maurice Eisenstein, "Third World Missiles and Nuclear Proliferation," TAe Washington Quarterly, vol. 5, no. 3 (Summer 1982); Aaron Karp, "Ballistic Missiles in the Third World," International Security, vol. 9, no. 3 (Winter 1984/85); "Missile Proliferation in the Third World," in Strategic Survey 1988-1989 (London: Brassey's for International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1989), pp. 14-25; Martin S. Navias, "Ballistic Missile Proliferation in the Middle East," Survival , vol. 31, no. 3 (May/June 1989); Robert D. Shuey, et al., "Missile Proliferation: Survey of Emerging Missile Forces," Congressional Research Service Report No. 88-642F, February 9, 1989; and Leonard S. Spector, The Undeclared Bomb (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1988). Thomas Mahnken is a Research Analyst with SRS Technologies in Arlington, Virginia. Timothy Hoyt is a Ph.D. candidate at SAIS and currently works for the United States Army in the field of security assistance. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not reflect those of the U.S. Army, SRS Technologies, or any of its sponsoring agencies. The authors wish to thank Dr. Richard Speier and Dr. Michael Vlahos for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this article. 101 102 SAIS REVIEW Given its role as one of the principal arbiters of the strategic world order, the United States has a significant stake in slowing missile proliferation , which has the potential to erode U.S. control over regional events at the very time that developing states are acquiring the means to wage increasingly destructive forms of warfare. The spread of ballistic missiles poses a threat to U.S. interests on a number of levels. On a tactical level, short-range missiles pose a threat to the United States' ability to project its power in the event of a conflict. On an operational level, ballistic missiles held by hostile countries threaten to restrict the ability of the United States to carry out missions to assist beleaguered allies. Finally , on a strategic level, the possession ofsuch systems by regional powers, in combination with growing economic and conventional military might, may enable regional powers to supplant American leadership on regional issues. Ballistic Missiles: A Layman's Guide The proliferation of long-range missiles is impelled by a series of political and military factors. First and foremost among these is the fact that such missiles have the potential to be highly effective weapons. The ballistic missile, with its short flight time and high accuracy, is the ideal weapon ofsurprise attack. When mated with a nuclear or chemical warhead , it is a highly destructive weapon. In some instances, when aimed at key military (troop formations, nuclear storage facilities, missile sites) and industrial (war-supporting industry, economic facilities) targets, such a weapon could determine the outcome of a conflict. Of course, the mere presence of missile systems could also exacerbate conflict. The fear that they may be used in a surprise attack could turn a low-level crisis into war through misperception or miscalculation, and this risk is magnified by the compact geographic scope ofmany Third World theaters. The fact that most countries in the Third World have or will likely have relatively few missiles and that their missiles may be vulnerable to attack...

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