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CONVENTIONAL ARMS. CONTROL IN EUROPE Stanley R. Shan .he October 1986 summit meeting between President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in Reykjavik, Iceland, appeared to bring the superpowers close to agreement on dramatic cuts in their nuclear forces, including total elimination of some classes of weapons. Disagreement on research, testing, and deployment of strategic defenses ultimately blocked accord. But the far-reaching nuclear limitations discussed at Reykjavik raised many questions about the nature of the EastWest military balance and how such fundamental shifts in superpower nuclear relationships would affect the security of Western Europe. In particular, the consequent reduction in reliance on nuclear weapons to deter a Warsaw Pact attack focused attention on the imbalances between NATO and Warsaw Pact conventional forces. Many West European leaders warned that such dramatic nuclear cuts would leave the West at a comparative disadvantage unless there were, among other things, parallel reductions leading to more equally balanced East-West conventional forces in Europe. NATO and Warsaw Pact negotiators have met in Vienna, Austria, since 1973 attempting to negotiate reductions in their military forces located in central Europe. Their inability to reach even a first stage accord has called into question the utility of continuing the talks and has led both the Pact and NATO countries to examine alternatives to these Stanley R. Sloan is the specialist in U.S. alliance relations for the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress. He is a former member of the U.S. delegation to the MBFR negotiations and is author of NA TO s Future: Toward a New Transatlantic Bargain (Washington, D.C: National Defense University Press, 1985 and London: Macmillan , 1986) and ofEast- West Relations in Europe (New York: Foreign Policy Association , 1986). The views expressed in this article do not necessarily represent those of the Congressional Research Service or the Library of Congress. 23 24 SAIS REVIEW long-running talks on Mutual and Balanced Force Reductions (MBFR), as they are known in the West. An alternative now appears to be taking shape, affiliated with the Conference on Confidence and Security Building Measures and Disarmament in Europe, more commonly referred to as the Conference on Disarmament in Europe (CDE). The CDE grew out of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) and became the CSCEs principal subnegotiations focusing on military security issues. In 1986 a number of developments intensified the relationship between CDE and MBFR. First, in June 1986 the Warsaw Pact endorsed a sweeping Soviet proposal for reduction of nuclear and conventional armaments across Europe. The Pact proposed cuts in virtually all categories of military forces from the Atlantic to the Urals, including a cut in the numerical strength of NATO and Warsaw Pact forces by 110,000 to 150,000 troops within one or two years, leading to an eventual 25 percent reduction in NATO and Warsaw Pact ground forces and their armaments by the early 1990s. The proposal appeared to bypass the stalemated MBFR negotiations. The Pact said that its ideas could be discussed either in MBFR, CDE, or some new forum. But most observers saw the initiative as a sign that the Soviets were not interested in continuing the MBFR talks. Meanwhile, the CDE was nearing a conclusion in Stockholm. In September 1986 the delegates reached agreement on a package of confidence - and security-building measures, expanding the scope of similar measures that the CSCE participants had agreed to in 1977. The provisions for notification of military activities, invitation of observers to military exercises, and advance notification of large-scale military activities were all made obligatory (compliance with the 1977 measures was voluntary). Delegates agreed on provisions for on-site inspection from the air or ground to verify compliance with agreed measures. Because of the CDEs pan-European coverage, the European portion of Soviet territory is included in all aspects of the accord, even the on-site inspection requirements. Successful conclusion of this meeting left open the question of whether there should be a second-stage CDE and, if so, what it should cover. l That issue is currently being considered at the CSCE review conference in Vienna, also the site of the MBFR talks. Finally, following...

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