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[ 40 ] asia policy At the Core of U.S.-China Relations Nancy Bernkopf Tucker U.S.-China relations are never as good or as bad as they seem and rarely do they remain long at any imagined peak or nadir. One of the few constants in the changing dynamic—vital to judging the depth and breadth of relations—is the issue of Taiwan. The contention over Taiwan’s status and future circumscribes prospects for peace and mutual benefit between the United States and China. This issue necessitates interaction but undermines cooperation. It demonstrates the vast differences of vision and practice between the two powers in political, economic, and security affairs. Even as Washington and Beijing work together on vital issues such as international finance, law enforcement, climate change, counterterrorism, and North Korean nuclear proliferation, Taiwan remains at the core of the relationship, ensuring mistrust and suspicion. If Taiwan had become part of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, confrontations between Washington and Beijing would have been fewer and the opportunities for reconciliation and cooperation far greater. Progress on contemporary problems would be easier. The Cold War determined initial policies and practices. The United States opposed “Red China” and supported the “Free Chinese” in the context of the ideological competition then defining the world community. When the United States and China began to normalize relations in the 1970s and Washington suddenly had more Communist friends than did Moscow, the place of Taipei rapidly eroded. Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S.-Taiwan-China triangle has been both more and less critical, more and less of an obstacle to crafting what successive administrations in Washington have termed a positive, constructive, candid, cooperative, and comprehensive U.S.-China relationship. By the 21st century, the original alignments would most probably have vanished except for the flourishing of democracy in Taiwan. Today Washington remains committed to good relations with both Beijing and Taipei even as the context and attributes of those relationships have changed. U.S. statesmen traditionally argued that they wanted a strong nancy bernkopf tucker is Professor of History at Georgetown University and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, and Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. She is the author of the just-published book Strait Talk: United States-Taiwan Relations and the Crisis with China. Her earlier books include Patterns in the Dust, Uncertain Friendships, and the edited volumes Dangerous Strait, China Confidential, and Lyndon Johnson Confronts the World. She can be reached at . [ 41 ] roundtable • defining a healthy balance and united China friendly to the United States. The Chinese have often been skeptical of this claim—whether because of 19th-century imperialist interference in the country’s affairs or owing to a more recent belief that Washington sought to contain China. The 21st century is the first time in the modern era that the United States has needed to contend with a powerful and influential Chinese state that must be consulted on a range of regional and global issues. For both Washington and Beijing, this demands a change in attitude and policies; it necessitates an approach mindful of history, attuned to cultural and political sensitivities, and flexible enough to tolerate unprecedented types and degrees of accommodation. The American and Chinese people have barely begun to adjust to this new reality. U.S. policymakers also face a changed situation as China’s growing political, economic, and military might renders Taiwan’s status ever more precarious. China always had preponderant size—in numbers and geography—but now the country possesses increasing military advantage and economic leverage. Beijing does not want to attack the island and may not yet be convinced of its ability to do so—although its determination if provoked is clear. But time is on China’s side, as its military modernization continues and with Taiwan lacking the resources, manpower, and possibly the determination to compete. Crucial in this regard is the degree of rhetorical and actual support from the United States. Washington’s intercession raises the stakes for China politically and economically, even apart from any use of U.S. military force. Yet the degree of U.S. engagement...

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