Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics (review)

[ 163 ] policymaker’s library • select books published in 2008 Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics Bobo Lo Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press and Chatham House, 2008 • 300 pp. This book examines the current state and future prospects of the Sino-Russian relationship in a rapidly evolving global context. main argument Few international relationships have provoked such polarized views as the Sino-Russian “strategic partnership.” Moscow and Beijing portray bilateral ties as a model of cooperation, whereas Western critics warn of an authoritarian alliance that would create a new, non-democratic world order. This book challenges these simplistic interpretations, arguing instead that the dynamic between the two great powers is one of strategic convenience—an axis of convenience—driven by expediency and self-interest. policy implications • The West should not see the Sino-Russian partnership as a threat. Moscow and Beijing have different views of the world, contrasting approaches to foreign policy, and sometimes conflicting priorities. Their apparent consensus is superficial and fragile. • Moscow and Beijing look principally to the West, not to each other. Russia attaches much greater importance to Europe, whereas China sees the U.S. as its indispensable partner. • In Central Asia, Russia and China are more competitors than partners, as revealed both in their contrasting attitudes toward the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and in their growing competition for regional energy resources. • As a huge energy consumer and importer, China has more in common with the U.S. than with Russia. Despite threatening talk, Moscow has no interest in diverting gas exports from Europe to China. • Sino-Russian relations will remain sound over the next decade, but the longer-term outlook is problematic. Although confrontation is unlikely, relations will become increasingly uncomfortable. Both countries will engage more with the West—China because the West is key to its future; Russia out of fear of China. • The West has a strong interest in a stable Sino-Russian relationship. A major deterioration would seriously undermine Eurasian and global security. ...