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[ 186 ] asia policy Rivals: How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade Bill Emmott San Diego: Harcourt, 2008 • 352 pp. This book examines the implications of the emergence of three great political and economic powers in Asia—China, India, and Japan—and of their commercial, diplomatic, and potentially military rivalry. main argument EconomicdevelopmentinAsiahasfollowedafamiliarpatternofhighsavings, high investment, and growing exports, with China now emulating Japan’s exampleandIndiaattemptingtofollowChina.Althoughalwaysthreatenedby political instability or global economic conditions, this development is likely to be sustained during the coming decade and beyond. This means that the economic and political interests of the major Asian powers will increasingly overlap, with China reaching across the Indian Ocean for resources, India looking eastward for markets and investment partners, and Japan seeking a closer relationship with India in order to discourage China from seeking to dominate Asia. This evolution toward genuinely “Asian” commercial, diplomatic, and strategic thinking could be benign if all three great powers and their many weaker neighbors accept that cooperation is more in their interests than conflict. Conflict remains a danger, however, thanks to the many unresolved territorial disputes in the region, to ambitious political and military leaderships, to the legacy of history, and to the rise of nationalism in all three countries but especially in China and Japan. policy implications • The Bush administration’s strategy of engaging more deeply with China while simultaneously strengthening the U.S.-Japan military alliance and forging a civil nuclear energy pact and joint defense framework with India should be continued by future administrations. Balance-of-power politics is the emerging reality of Asia, and that reality is more likely to remain peaceful if the three main powers all feel strong and secure. • Such balance-of-power politics would best be played out through deeper, more inclusive regional institutions that encourage governments to seek cooperation or compromise, beginning (like the European Union) in the realm of economic affairs. The East Asia Summit, launched in 2005, is a better framework than the obsolete APEC. The U.S. needs to be present in all security forums but absent from regional economic discussions. ...

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