Malaysia in 2002: Bracing for a Post-Mahathir Future

Southeast Asian Affairs 2003, pp. 149-67 MALAYSIA IN 2002 Bracing for a Post-Mahathir Future Maznah Mohamad Introduction Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's unexpected announcement at the 2002 UMNO General Assembly of his intention to resign on 22 June was one of the most baffling developments for the country. Although his detractors had long clamoured for his stepping down but were almost resigned to tolerating his prolonged tenure, they too were surprised and puzzled by the timing of his resignation. Coincidentally, the second largest Malay party, the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) also lost its leader a day after Mahathir made his own announcement to give up his premiership. Fadzil Noor, president of PAS for the last thirteen years, died on 23 June 2002. With the passing of moderate leader Fadzil Noor, there is speculation that PAS will take on a more hardline Islamic stand under the stewardship of Hadi Awang. The year 2002 was thus the penultimate year of Mahathir rule. On the surface, it passed by quietly for the country, although deeper within lies the makings of many future turbulences. Transition or Continuity? Mahathir's scheduled exit has become a subject of great reflection as to whether Malaysia in 2002 had entered a transition phase that will divide its Mahathir years from a post-Mahathir era. Will there be a continuity that will see the Mahathir legacy seamlessly enmeshed with the policies of his successor or will his departure mark a crucial political watershed? Most opted to see the future of Malaysia in the former, stable sense. Wary of what would await the future, moves were started by some quarters in October 2002 to pedal arguments and a "moral" plea for him to consider staying on, until this possibility was quickly denied by the Prime Minister's own son.1 Mahathir himself is unlikely to contest in the next election due in 2004.2 Perhaps what was behind this momentum to prolong Mahathir's leadership was the rise of increasingly fractious national issues and political dilemmas all set to pepper post-Mahathir Malaysia. In addition, seeds of an unstable Southeast Maznah Mohamad is an Associate Professor in the School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia. 150Maznah Mohamad Asia had been sown with the rise of political Islam and its violent ramifications, in which Malaysia has been a strong link in the chain of events. In a way, Mahathir's seemingly sudden intention to resign could be the result of his own calculated belief that things would never be the same again in Malaysia and in the region. The golden years of development, stability, and violence-free multicultural co-existence of its citizens seemed destined not to continue, with or without his intervention. The year 2002 saw Malaysia facing several national and global challenges — how to deal with the demands of a more forceful Islamic electorate, what to make of the "failed" Malay agenda, how to cope with the promises and threats of economic globalization, and how to sustain a regional security regime that will be reassuring to investors. Malaysia will be very different from the past era during which Mahathir was able to successfully play out his ambitions and visions. Structurally, it will be much more difficult for his successor to follow suit. Would he then be leaving a legacy of a Malaysia no longer set on a selfassured path to developed status? Certainly, national and regional events in 2002 have heralded a less economically confident, more politically ambivalent, and a culturally more divided Malaysia. Yet, the doors for political reforms may inadvertently, if not inevitably, be opened. Problems of Successorship One question that preoccupied observers on the question of Mahathir's resignation was whether this would, in fact, lead to a break-out of serious in-fighting within his party, especially among the contenders vying for his vacated position. It proved otherwise, at least for the most part of 2002. Successive years of factionalism and in-fighting, though successfully if not brutally subdued by Mahathir, had created a condition of fatigue among major players. Although Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, current Deputy Prime Minister and successor to the premiership was not the party's best choice and was...