Indonesia in 2002: Megawati's Way

Southeast Asian Affairs 2003, pp. 97-116 INDONESIA IN 2002 Megawati's Way1 Anthony L. Smith Introduction On 25 December 2002, President Megawati Soekarnoputri made a one-day visit to Papua. During a ceremony with 3,000 people injayapura, the normally reticent Megawati announced that she would sing her favourite song as a Christmas present for the people of Papua. The song she chose was Frank Sinatra's "My Way". Yet the year 2002 was marked by constant media commentary that Megawati had failed to show leadership on any of the major issues to confront Indonesia. Megawati's way, it turns out, is to be instinctively cautious. Indonesia continues to deal with the twin economic and political crises that began with the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Politically, Indonesia continues to be in a transitional phase as the body politic moves towards strengthening its infant democracy. The year saw yet another set of incremental constitutional amendments, while keeping to the 1945 Constitution. Despite hopes after Megawati's selection as President in 2001, raised in particular by the announcement of a strong Cabinet, the current administration has been described as lethargic by many pundits. During 2002, there was no reshuffle of the Cabinet, although there were very public difficulties with several members of the executive. While Megawati skirted around the question of a Cabinet reshuffle in mid-2002, by the end of the year she was scotching any suggestion of Cabinet changes completely. Regional autonomy continues to devolve resources and decision-making to the outlying regions. A peace deal in December 2002 in Aceh may or may not bring about actual peace, but there was still a great deal of violence in both Aceh and Papua throughout the year. The event that singularly grabbed global media attention, however, and has some profound implications for Indonesia, was the terrorist bomb blast in Bali on 12 October 2002 — the single largest terrorist attack since the AI-Qaeda attacked the U.S. mainland on 11 September 2001. The Megawati administration has been forced to confront the problem of international terrorism in its own backyard. Anthony L. Smith is a Senior Research Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Hawai'i, USA. 98Anthony L. Smith Political Developments and Outlook With no real progress in terms of wider political and economic change — with minor exceptions, such as a further constitutional adjustment — a broad pessimism about the Megawati administration increasingly crept into the chattering classes in Indonesia throughout 2002. Megawati has failed to become involved in policy discussion in the public arena, and many question whether she is even interested in policy details.2 Megawati assumed the presidency of Indonesia on 23 July 2001 in controversial circumstances. Her ascension to the executive marked the end of a political paralysis that had gripped Jakarta under Abdurrahman Wahid. Wahid, the head of a political party with about 10 per cent of parliamentary seats, had been removed by the MPR (Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat or People's Consultative Assembly) on charges of corruption, but his failure to share power with parties in Parliament to cobble together a working majority was his ultimate undoing. Megawati brought more regime stability to the political system, and it is unlikely that she can be removed in the same manner, despite dire predictions from some commentators at the time of the leadership change. Not only is Megawati's party the largest in the legislature, but the rules regarding impeachment have been tightened up. Megawati, against expectations, resisted all pressure to reshuffle her Cabinet in 2002. Although initially hailed as the "Dream Team" Cabinet because of its combination of technocrats and concessions to multiparty interests, the Cabinet was widely regarded as ineffective throughout 2002, even by members of Megawati's own party. In August 2002, the faction head of the Indonesian Democracy Party-Struggle (PDI-P), Roy B.B.Janis, publicly demanded a reshuffle — most likely so that PDI-P could strengthen its position and take more seats at the Cabinet table. Megawati, mindful that a Cabinet reshuffle was the trigger for her predecessor's ignominious removal from office, has opted not to upset the balance of power within her multi-partisan executive. One of...