Testing the export-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey

In this paper the Turkish export-led growth hypothesis is examined from the trade liberalisation process initiated in 1980. The paper has employed Toda and Yamamoto (1995) procedure for testing for Granger non-causality in the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology to analyze the dynamic relationship between export growth and economic growth in Turkey using quarterly data from 1989 to 2006. The empirical results support the export-led growth hypothesis for Turkey and that Granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real GDP.