Russia's Conservative Modernization: A Mission Impossible?

"Conservatism is in vogue in Russia," says Dmitri Trenin, director of the Moscow Carnegie Center. The United Russia Party under Vladimir Putin has already acknowledged itself as a conservative party that can bring modernization to Russia without sacrificing its core values: traditional family, a strong state, patriotism, and "faith in Russia." However, beneath the veneer of conservative modernization, Trenin believes that systemic problems such as institutionalized corruption and cronyism have created a vicious cycle of rent seeking

Despite his critique of the conservatives, Trenin focuses not on whether the conservatives are the rightful rulers of Russia, but rather on how the conservative modernization movement can be effectively channeled to improve the Russian political and economic system and the well-being of its people. Trenin asks the main questions, "What is it that Medvedev and Putin are hoping to achieve and is it achievable through their conservative modernization campaign? If not, is there a credible alternative to 'conservative' modernization?" While he asks the right questions and delivers a good explanation of the potential dangers of conservatism without modernization, Trenin falls short in answering the latter question.

Trenin asserts that the current rent-seeking bureaucracy was created under the conservative Putin-Medvedev coalition and cannot be solved unless drastic changes are made. He suggests that change must come from within, implying a change of heart from Putin, Medvedev, and other Kremlin insiders. However, he does not show us a situation in which they would do so or offer ideas for how a Russian or outside country could encourage this. Instead he claims that the existence of conservative governments spanning from Europe (Germany's Christian Democrats) to America (the Republican Party under George W.Bush) and China (the Chinese Communist Party) somehow give comfort to Kremlin leaders in pursuing their own conservative policies. But there is no evidence that conservative governments in the West or China are more likely to support or tolerate conservatism in Russia or that liberal governments are necessarily anti-Russian conservatism. The harsh response of George W. Bush's government to Russia's actions in Georgia is a telling counterpoint.

The author offers extremely astute criticism of Moscow's conservative leaders. He cautions us on the nationalist discourse espoused by conservatives--that Russia is an isolated great power destined to engage in a perpetual rivalry with the West, which seeks to suppress it ideologically—as well as their obsession with staying in power. This is extremely important to understanding the nature of Russian conservatism today as opposed to conservatism in the West and Asia. Domestically, Trenin agrees with Putin's assertion that Russians have never had it so good in terms of liberal freedoms and material wealth. However, he urges the Russian people not to compare themselves to Russia's past, but to the current state of developed countries and even its neighbors, such as Ukraine, which have a more progressive government. This is a bold suggestion and encourages us to reconsider how we measure political and economic success in Russia.

The big question boils down to the sustainability of the Russian economic system. Trenin's most compelling argument is that radical modernization is needed if Russia is to hold its society together. He argues that Russia cannot emulate China's authoritarian growth model because China's system retains a semblance of meritocracy while Russia's is based purely on rent seeking. On this point, Trenin is absolutely right. The conservative model, being endemically corrupt because it depends on a form of corrupt patron-client relations to survive, cannot be the model to help Russia take its place among the major powers. Therefore, he suggests that without drastically opening up the economy and preventing systematic gridlock, Russia will not be able to hold on to its best and brightest from seeking their fortunes elsewhere.

The author has done a commendable job of outlining and explaining the current dilemma facing Russian politics. However, despite his attempts to take on a pragmatic approach to assessing the conservative modernization movement of Russia's leaders, he falls into the trap of trying too hard to convince the reader that a...