Forging an Indirect Strategy in Southeast Asia

Even as the campaign by the U.S.-led coalition against the radical Islamist Al Qaeda terrorist network and its Taliban protectors in Afghanistan is winding down, recognizing that a terrorist threat still exists in other parts of the world is vital. Any hubris generated by the swift and successful ouster of the Taliban regime and the elimination of Al Qaeda terrorist training camps and personnel should not obscure the fact that Afghanistan is but one theater in the war against terrorism. An estimated 5,000 Islamist recruits from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, and other countries have trained as Al Qaeda operatives in Osama bin Laden's camps in Afghanistan. Many of these individuals returned to their homelands to train new recruits and to found new cells. Additionally, about 50,000 volunteers from 50 countries passed through Al Qaeda camps during the Afghan jihad against Soviet occupation more than 20 years ago; many of them returned to their homelands as well, infused with a dangerously radical "jihad mentality." Thus, even after the end of the current campaign in Afghanistan, the international community must still eradicate not just Al Qaeda but also the much larger radical Islamic network worldwide.

As a result, intelligence analysts are now focusing on Asia. Rohan Gunaratna, a former chief investigator for the United Nations Terrorism Prevention Branch now based at the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at St. Andrew's University in Scotland, has argued that the center of gravity of terrorism has shifted from the Middle East to Asia since the 1993 Oslo peace accords between Israel and the Palestinians. Gunaratna observes that Asia is currently experiencing the highest incidence of terrorist attacks in the world. ¹ In fact, following the security crackdown by U.S. and European governments in the wake of the September 11 attacks, Western intelligence analysts believe that Al Qaeda operatives have been seeking safer waters in Southeast Asia, a region notorious for its porous borders, large populations of urban and rural poor, and both Muslim and non-Muslim armed extremist groups. The U.S. State Department recently named the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia as "potential Al Qaeda hubs." ²

What strategy will root out the terrorist network within Southeast Asia? At the strategic level, the war against terrorism must be understood as a political and ideological war for the hearts and minds of the borderless, transnational Muslim state, or ummah. Hence, instead of pursuing a predominantly military approach to wiping out Al Qaeda cells worldwide, adopting an indirect strategy in which military power is carefully calibrated, and political, economic, and ideological measures are emphasized, is necessary to project the overarching message that the West is a friend of Islam and wants to help Muslims preserve their core values while they make the painful transition to modernity.

Al Qaeda and the Southeast Asian Radical Islamic Movement

Maritime Southeast Asia--a key theater of conflict during the Cold War--has reemerged with good reason as a region of prime strategic importance to the United States. About 20 percent of the world's one billion Muslims live in the area, and Indonesia hosts the world's largest Muslim population--170 million. The majority of the populations of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei are Muslim, and sizable Muslim minorities reside in the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Although most of the region's Muslims practice a tolerant form of Islam, oppose terrorism, and do not hold explicitly anti-American views, the links between regional radical Islamic groups and the Al Qaeda network are evident.

The most extensive exposé of these linkages was contained in a statement by the Singaporean government on January 11, 2002, that revealed that it had detained 13 members of Jemaah Islamiah (JI), a clandestine network with cells in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The Singaporean government also released a surveillance videotape, prepared by one of the detainees, and handwritten notes in Arabic that were discovered...