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The Washington Quarterly 23.4 (2000) 91-105



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Syria:
Hanging Together or Hanging Separately

Rachel Bronson


Within hours of Hafiz al-Asad's death on June 10, 2000, Syrian vice president Abdelhalim Khaddam designated Asad's son, Dr. Bashar al-Asad, chief of staff of the armed forces. On June 17, the Ba'th Party nominated him for president. The acceptance of Bashar by key Syrian political figures produced a palpable sense of relief throughout the region and as far away as Washington, D.C. After meeting Bashar, U.S. secretary of state Madeleine Albright announced, "I have the impression that the transition of power is taking place very smoothly."

The seamless transfer from father to son overcame the first obstacle of the Syrian leadership transition, but by no means the last. In many ways, the challenges are only now beginning. Will Dr. Bashar, as Hafiz al-Asad's son is known, be able to consolidate the power he needs to tackle Syria's international challenges? Weeks before his father's death, Israel dramatically altered the international environment by withdrawing from Lebanon. Domestically, can he breach the divide between the Syrian old guard and the Young Turk politicians and shore up Syria's crumbling economy? Days before Asad's death, important figures began challenging Bashar's growing power. Significant tension exists, if momentarily pushed below the surface.

The mourning period for Asad is likely to be a quiet one. But how events unfold in the next year is much less predictable than the current calm implies.

The issue of the Syrian leadership transition is a useful reminder of the existence and importance of the domestic political environment. Syria's many international challenges tend to obscure the linkage between domestic and international politics. Damascus has long-standing problems with the Ba'th regime in Iraq and sided against it in both the Iran-Iraq War and [End Page 91] Operation Desert Storm. Ongoing problems with Turkey include a water dispute, support for anti-Turkish Kurdish factions, and irredentist claims on the Turkish province of Hatay. Turkish-Syrian hostilities culminated in 1998 with both countries mobilizing armed forces to their shared border. The Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and the takeover of Israeli outposts by Syria's proxy Hizballah is only the latest chapter in this 50-year conflict.

But foreign policy decisions do not take place in a domestic vacuum. Despite the dangerous international environment, the key concerns for the new Syrian government are Syria's collapsing economy and the minefield associated with fixing it. President Asad was able to manage the economic elite with a series of carrots and sticks. Bashar will have to renegotiate this relationship in a way that is likely to alienate many in the political and military establishment. The question of succession recognizes that Syria is more than a billiard ball reacting to other states. What happens inside Syria has important implications for what happens outside of it.

Syria's Stormy Past

Without understanding the tumultuous and unpredictable nature of Syrian politics throughout the 1950s and 1960s, it is impossible to appreciate fully the achievement of Asad's 30 years of uninterrupted rule and the risks Bashar inherits with leadership. A close examination of this period shows both the fractious nature of Syrian politics as well as the links between Syria's domestic and foreign affairs. Although domestic struggles continued after Asad took power in 1970, most notably the 1982 massacre in Hama, Asad was able to impose a measure of stability on Syrian political life that eluded previous leaders. It is this dichotomy between pre-1970 and post-1970 Syria that makes discussions of Syria's leadership transition so intriguing. Will Bashar be able to build on and benefit from the institutions and relative stability of the domestic environment of the post-1970s, or will long-suppressed demands return Syria to the pre-Asad years? Has the seemingly uncontrollable Syrian domestic scene been tamed, or is it simmering beneath the surface waiting to explode?

Syria before Asad

Between 1946 and 1970, Syria was arguably the most unstable state in...

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