It's Up to You, New York

Table

In what is surely shaping up to be the most closely watched U.S. Senate race in history, First Lady Hillary Clinton's challenge is to reclaim the ground lost to New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani in 1999. Clinton began last year with a seemingly comfortable lead in most polls but saw her margin begin to evaporate in March and now trails the mayor by mid-to-high single-digit margins in most polls.

What happened? To a certain extent, Clinton may not have really had the solid lead she appeared to possess at this time last year. Coming out of the Lewinsky-impeachment ordeal, Clinton was widely seen, particularly among Democrats and in the heavily Democratic Northeast, as a victim. Her favorability numbers were running at record-high levels, but regardless of whether they were real or more a result of sympathy for her plight, they did not last.

At least in theory, Clinton's bid for a Senate seat in New York should not be that difficult. After all, her husband carried the state twice, by 16 points in 1992 and 29 points in 1996. Although the Empire State does have a Republican governor, George Pataki is the first since Nelson Rockefeller was last reelected in 1970. Both Senate seats are in Democratic hands, with Charles Schumer having trounced Alfonse D'Amato 55 to 44 percent in last year's Senate race. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by 10 percentage points. In short, this race should not be too hard for Clinton to perform well in.

In practice, however, Clinton faces a distinctly uphill fight to win her first elective office. A recent compilation of 12 statewide polls of 7,944 likely voters conducted by John Zogby and his firm, Zogby International, between December 11, 1998, and November 18, 1999, gives a bird's eye view of the challenges facing Clinton. The extraordinarily large sample gives the opportunity to examine and analyze demographic, geographic, and political subgroups much more closely than normally possible. Overall, Giuliani leads by six percentage points, 48 to 42 percent, with 11 percent undecided.

First, look at Jewish voters, who make up 12 percent of the vote. Normally, Democrats can count on winning 70-75 percent of the Jewish vote in New York, but among the 932 Jews in the Zogby surveys, Clinton only tied Giuliani, 44 to 44 percent. It is true that D'Amato and, for that matter, Giuliani have always done better among Jewish voters than other Republicans, but this is clearly a problem for Clinton.

Exacerbating the situation for Clinton is that Giuliani also beats her by 19 points among Catholics, 55 to 36 percent. Catholics make up 43 percent of the state's electorate, and white ethnic Catholics are a huge problem for her because they normally vote with the Democratic candidate.

Next, look at voters in union households, who make up almost a third of the electorate. In his 55-44 percent win last year, exit polls showed Schumer carried union households by 21 points, 60 to 39 percent. Clinton prevails by only four percentage points, 47 to 43 percent. Given the disproportionate number of Catholics and other white ethnics in the union vote, and Clinton's low ratings in those groups, her low union margin is understandable but still a problem.

Now, look at partisanship. Giuliani does much better among Republicans than Clinton does among Democrats. He beats her soundly among independents. Within the 35 percent of the New York electorate who call themselves Republicans, Giuliani captures 75 percent of the vote. By contrast, Clinton carries the 45 percent who are Democrats with only 65 percent of the vote. The greater number of Democrats would still give Clinton the edge, except that Giuliani also carries the fifth of voters who are independent or belong to other parties by 17 points, 51 to 34 percent.

The estimated percent of the...