Inflation and Economic Growth in Malaysia: A Threshold Regression Approach

This paper examines the issue of the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between inflation rate and growth rate of GDP in the context of Malaysia, using new endogenous threshold autoregressive (TAR) models proposed by Hansen (2000) for estimation and inference. The empirical analysis uses annual data from Malaysia for the period 1970–2005. A specific question addressed in this study was: What is the threshold inflation rate for Malaysia? The findings clearly suggest that one inflation threshold value (i.e., structural break point) exists for Malaysia; and this implies a non-linear relationship between inflation and growth. The estimated threshold regression model suggests 3.89 per cent as the threshold value of inflation rate above which inflation significantly retards growth rate of GDP. In addition, below the threshold level, there is a statistically significant positive relationship between inflation rate and growth. If Bank Negara (Central Bank of Malaysia) pays more attention to the inflation phenomena, then substantial gains can be achieved in low-inflation environment while conducting the new monetary policy.