Can Cuba Change? Ferment in Civil Society

Despite the apparent stability of the Castro dictatorship, an internal movement of civic resistance has gradually been gaining strength in Cuba. Opposition organizations as the Varela Project and the Women in White have undertaken important initiatives, and some 3,000 actions of protest and non-cooperation take place every year, mostly in the provinces of eastern and central Cuba. Alienated youth, marginalized non-whites, and oppressed workers represent three potentially explosive sources of cleavage and discontent. By reviving the democratic nationalism associated with the tradition of José Martí, the Cuban movement will be an important factor shaping the future of the country.

The opposition within Cuba has become more diverse as well as more unified, and the regime, despite its enduring capacity for repression, is showing signs of underlying weakness.