Sino-Japanese Cooperation in the East China Sea: Limitations and Prospects

In June 2008, Japanese and Chinese media reported that a breakthrough had been reached in the four-and-a-half year Chunxiao gas dispute. Rumours that an agreement was imminent had been circulating since early 2008 and had gained momentum during Hu Jintao's historic visit to Japan in May. The breakthrough followed eleven rounds of director-general level discussions, and several ministerial and executive level meetings. The elite commitment to arrive at a consensus emerged after a period of significant tension in the bilateral relationship. Given this turn around in bilateral relations, the process by which the "new consensus" emerged merits investigation as it may hold lessons for Sino-Japanese relations as a whole. In an effort to explain the circumstances of the June agreement and analyse what lessons it holds for the Sino-Japanese relationship, this article is divided into three sections. The first section explores the background of the Chunxiao gas dispute in an effort to understand what is at stake in the dispute and the barriers to compromise. The second section analyses the breakthrough in June. The final section discusses the prospects and barriers to future cooperation. The article concludes with an assessment of what lessons can be learned from the agreement.