An Empirical Examination of East Asia's Pre-Crisis Pegged Exchange Rates

We specify appropriate models for the behaviour of East Asian economies' pre-crisis daily bilateral exchange rates vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar and explore systematic relationships among those exchange rates. Our preliminary analysis indicates that the rupiah, baht, and Hong Kong dollar are stationary against the U.S. dollar. Unlike major currencies, the rupiah, peso, and won do not exhibit volatility clustering vis-à-vis the dollar. We also find evidence of systematic relationships that are consistent with contagion during the 1997 Asian crisis. The distinctive characteristics of East Asia's exchange rates were due to capital controls. Our findings lend some support to the region's post-crisis moves towards more flexible exchange rates.