Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future (review)

Richard J. Murnane and Kam-biu Liu assembled a group of authors with expertise ranging from paleotempestology (the study of tropical systems utilizing geologic proxies) to global climate change, allowing them to produce the most comprehensive historical hurricane and typhoon work to date. Past research, present atmospheric variability research, and future trends are all well explained. The introductory chapter presents the organization of the book and briefly touches upon the methodologies used past, present, and future. The first nine chapters are dedicated to prehistoric and historic reconstruction of hurricane and typhoon variability. In chapter two, the process of overwash into coastal freshwater lakes by landfalling hurricanes is described. Explanation of the methods used to extract and interpret lake core data along with core images and dating techniques lead to discussion about historical hurricane trends (mostly along the Gulf of Mexico coast). Similarly, in chapter three the authors use back-barrier sedimentary records to find landfall markers of intense hurricanes in the northeastern U.S. While both chapters have solid methodologies one must wonder if there is not contamination of the record by non-tropical storms such as nor'easters. To their credit none of the authors make definitive arguments based solely on this work but instead advance toward a greater understanding of long-term temporal trends of landfalling tropical systems.

Chapters four through eight are an interesting look into how more recent historical data are used to reconstruct the spatial and temporal distribution of tropical events. Methodologies here include the meticulous pouring over of plantation diaries written just after the American Revolution through the American Civil War. Given the commercial enterprise of these plantations, many owners kept detailed weather data. Other researchers have used a modified Fujita damage scale (normally used to determine tornado strength) to rank wind speeds of hurricanes described in early newsprint. Still other researchers show how local Chinese government records, including the Emperor's veritable records, were used to reconstruct typhoon locations and intensity. While these chapters were certainly an interesting read, I am always a bit skeptical of the analysis of data that were little more than descriptive interpretations. Nevertheless, this work is important if climatologists hope to find an inter-, intra-, or multi-decadal signal in tropical storm activity. I applaud the efforts of the researchers as this work could only be described as tedious.

The present-day variability portion of the book begins with an examination of tropical activity over the western North Pacific. The author, Chan, describes the conditions over the western North Pacific needed for tropical development. While physically similar to those of the western Atlantic, the description seemed necessary to acclimate myself to the vernacular of Pacific Typhoons. Chan goes on to describe the inter-decadal, inter-annual, seasonal, and monthly variability of tropical systems and the relationships between tropical systems and teleconnections such as ENSO and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Chapter 11 includes a more in-depth look at the ENSO and tropical cyclone relationship. Chu first describes ENSO and then relates warm and cold episodes to the western North Pacific, eastern and central North Pacific, South Pacific, and the North Atlantic. Chu gives a detailed and very helpful summary table at the end of the chapter which compares such variables as tropical system frequency, genesis location, intensity, track, and life span to ENSO phase, for each region. Chapter 13 looks at the dynamical seasonal forecasts of tropical storm statistics. This was my favorite chapter as the material is related to William Gray's seasonal tropical system forecasts, both in terms of atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics. A great deal of emphasis is placed upon the relationship of sea-surface temperature and forecasting strategies. While this chapter does not encompass all of the variables within a seasonal forecast it gives the reader a better understanding of the atmospheric and oceanic components, both measured and modeled, and their limitations.

The book concludes...