The Numbers Game: Baseball's Lifelong Fascination with Statistics (review)

Alan Schwarz's The Numbers Game is not a statistical book but a book about statistics that reads like a fast-paced novel. In it Schwarz demonstrates how statistics have evolved to reflect the changes in the game as well as at times influencing those changes and promoting baseball's popularity. It is a thoroughly researched and intriguing history that goes beyond the numbers. Much in the way that Bill James has proven to be an excellent historian beyond the numbers, so too is Schwarz in this book. Statistics serve as the backdrop, but readers will learn much more about the changing way the game has been played and evaluated.

The book delves into a number of interesting areas, profiling the early work of Henry Chadwick and the pioneers who followed: Ernie Lanigan, F. C. Lane (whose development of a percentage value of a run for different types of hits were, later, remarkably close to the values assigned by Pete Palmer in his Linear Weights method), the Eliases and the roots of the Elias Sports Bureau, Allan Roth, and Hy Turkin and the genesis of the first baseball encyclopedia.

This is followed up with the story of the first baseball encyclopedia from Macmillan Publishing Company and the use of the computer in compiling this tome. It points out the work of the editors in starting to straighten out long-held errors in recordkeeping. The latter topic becomes particularly intriguing with a description of the selective changing of statistics by Joseph Reichler in future editions of the encyclopedia along with the ongoing resistance of the baseball establishment to change records that were in error, no matter how compelling the evidence, and of the push for a statute of limitations on recording errors.

While noting that some teams have tried to avoid the stigma of being overrun by statheads in making personnel decisions, Schwarz is for the most part respectful of the work done in this area. However, his description of those present at a meeting of the Statistical Analysis Committee at the 2003 sabr convention may cause some consternation. His overall summary of the "motley crew," with many wearing "some sort of baseball-logoed T-shirt, cap, or jacket, many with all three," is essentially a correct description of the convention attendees in general. In addition, the relevance of his comment "There were lots of beards" is unclear, and the statement that "an odd number of men spoke with a lisp" goes beyond irrelevance to downright insensitivity.

The Numbers Game is packed with information and conclusions—such as whether clutch hitting exists (apparently not) or if Jack Morris's relatively high lifetime earned run average was a result of his generally pitching well enough to win independent of the run support he received in a game (also apparently not)—without the square-root, sigma signs, and other mathematical hieroglyphics that scare some away. I found chapter 10, on the role of luck or random error, particularly enjoyable as Schwarz cogently examines the role of random chance in baseball along with the resistance of fans to acknowledge it.

The one essential missing from the book is a list of sources. There is a great deal of information, but it would be nice to know where it came from. The Numbers Game, which concludes with a look to the future, is the definitive baseball book of 2004 and a must-read follow-up to last year's best-selling Moneyball, by Michael Lewis.