Southeastern Europe in the Age of Globalism

Broad global trends are impacting southeastern Europe dramatically and providing a historic opportunity for favorable political and economic developments. The emergence of a global system of open trade, virtually unrestricted transferability of intellectual property, and an unhampered flow of investment capital, together with the enlargement of the European Union and the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, create a unique and historically significant opportunity for southeastern European countries to adhere themselves permanently to the Western world. Through that connection they have the opportunity to become more influential participants in the world community than in the past. The opening to this future is being facilitated by the end of the Cold War and with it the lessening of Great Power rivalry in and for the region: in particular, the pullback of Russian aspirations and, more recently, the reprioritization of US security and economic interests with respect to the region.

My purpose in this essay is to lay out a direction that might be followed during the next decade, one that is likely to lead to a successful long-term future for the countries of southeastern Europe, as a group and individually. The main theme is that, in the present world system, smaller countries have an unparalleled opportunity to become extremely successful participants in the global political and economic systems and that southeastern European countries should actively pursue this goal. These views are put forward with some hesitation, as I am not of the region but am only a far-off observer. Nevertheless, occasionally a view from afar can suggest broad patterns and movements and may contribute useful ideas to those actually responsible for policy making and governance on a day-to-day basis.

This confluence of recent events must be thought of as truly transforming—and unique—for the Balkan-southeastern European region. Only rarely during the past two thousand years have the peoples of the region had enough maneuvering room to act in their own behalf. Dominant empires have long been the major players in the Balkans, to the detriment of regional states that have tended to be organized in small and less structured entities. Seldom was there a decade over the past twenty centuries without one (more likely several) powerful and determined major powers exercising power and influence, if not outright occupation and control, within southeastern Europe with a purpose to serve larger geopolitical goals. Unique and lasting legacies have been left in the region by all of these intrusive powers: Roman, Byzantine, Venetian, Ottoman, Austrian-Hungarian, Russian (later, Soviet), French, German, British, and American. For a variety of reasons, these global powers have either disappeared from the scene or at least are fully occupied elsewhere, and thus there exists in the current environment a somewhat greater opportunity for the people of the region to promote their own destinies.

While the world community, in particular the press, has focused primarily on the recent crises and failures in the region—the breakup of and ensuing wars and civil breakdown in the former Yugoslavia, difficulties within Albania, and the failure to reach a Cyprus settlement—the fact is there have been some notable successes that tend to be less prominently mentioned. These successes include Greece's emergence as a mature and successful democracy within the EU, with a strengthened economy and a self-confident and constructive regional foreign policy; Turkey's development as a functioning democracy, with an increasingly stable and Western-oriented economy and legal and social environments; Bulgaria's and Romania's successful transitions from communist to Western-oriented political and economic systems in ways consistent with their own unique national cultures; the establishment (albeit not yet full achieved) of a genuine multinational state in Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYR Macedonia), which is also the newest nation-state in the Balkan region; improved relationships after years of tension between Greece and Turkey and, in a different context, between Romania and Hungary; and finally, with all the problems that...