U.S.-Japan Relations in a Changing World (review)

What drives U.S.-Japan relations and therefore affects this relationship most in the future? That is the question addressed in this volume celebrating the fiftieth anniversary of the San Francisco Peace Treaty and the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty.

Overall, the volume concludes that the San Francisco system forged in 1951 "remains intact, yet it is gradually losing its grip over the relationship" (p.2). Steven Vogel, the volume's editor and contributor, argues that this system, based on an unequal alliance, will be less stable and more contentious in the future than in the past. The greater turbulence may not decrease cooperation because the utility of military power is declining, economic issues are becoming less contentious, and bilateral relations are increasingly embedded in multilateral institutions. But it will increase tensions as Japanese foreign policy becomes more independent, the diplomatic agenda expands beyond trade, and more domestic actors participate in policymaking on both sides.

To reach these conclusions, the volume examines a variety of factors driving the U.S.-Japan relationship. Each chapter looks at specific independent variables from different levels of analysis. Three chapters focus on relative military and economic power from the systemic level. Three others highlight domestic variables, including ideas (policy paradigms), interests, and governmental institutions. Two more stress international interactions through trade and financial linkages. One appeal of the volume is its eclectic embrace of alternative theoretical perspectives. The three groups of chapters develop respectively realist (interests), constructivist (ideas), and liberal (institutions) accounts of U.S.-Japan relations. The volume's conclusions tilt toward constructivist and liberal interpretations. Although realist factors, namely the basic power imbalance, are unlikely to change, nationalist (constructivist) and institutional (liberal) forces will move the U.S.-Japan relationship toward greater tension.

Michael Green sets this tone in the first chapter titled "Balance of Power." After 50years, the basic asymmetries in the strategic relationship, he argues, remain intact. The imbalance has been adjusted five times as Japanese relative power grew (1960 revision of the Security Treaty, 1969 Satō-Nixon response to the Nixon shocks, 1978 Defense Guidelines, 1990-91 Persian Gulf War, and 1997 Revision of the Defense Guidelines). But throughout these externally induced crises, neither party wanted to jeopardize the fundamental trade-off in the relationship. Japan remained willing to sacrifice some autonomy in return for U.S. defense commitments, and America accepted less burden-sharing in order to maintain a strong position and freedom of action in Asia. The only structural power shifts that could undermine the strategic relationship, Green argues, are an implosion of the Japanese economy (which would shift U.S. attention to China), a U.S.-China confrontation over Taiwan that did not end well for America, and an American economic decline and retreat from Asia. Green concludes that none of these shifts is likely.

William Grimes in his chapter on "Economic Performance" agrees that a U.S. economic decline relative to Japan, although unlikely, would erode the U.S.-Japan relationship. The relationship works best, he argues, when Japanese economic growth does not exceed U.S. growth. The most serious economic tensions occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s when Japan was perceived to be surpassing the United States. This perception of a Japanese juggernaut persisted into the 1990s even though it eventually proved wrong. The United States rebounded solidly in the 1980s due to a dramatic deregulation and restructuring of the microeconomy from manufacturing to services (a part of the story Grimes misses by focusing primarily on macroeconomic and exchange rate issues). Meanwhile, Japan rushed headlong into a structural stone wall, as catch-up manufacturing industries absorbed more and more capital at the expense of new service and information sectors. Grimes doubts that Japan, with its aging population, massive national debt, and continuing banking problems, can challenge the United States again in the future.

Laurie Freeman's chapter on the "Media" also highlights the influence of structural power shifts on...